Just-Released Voter Data Hints at Election Outcomes

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Courtesy Kingston Creative. For their insights on NY-19, click here.

In Brief – The New York State Board of Elections released new enrollment data Sunday showing how many people have registered to vote across the state since February and their chosen political party.

The regular release shows which party is attracting more voters and depicts the partisan make-up of different parts of the state.

Looking at figures in the four state Senate Districts in the northern Hudson Valley and Catskills, the number of Democrats rose more than the number of Republicans in all but one. In Republican Sue Serino’s district, which encompasses Dutchess County, more than twice as many of the new enrollments were Democratic than Republican.

The difference was greatest in the 43rd District, represented by Republican Daphne Jordan, where nearly 4,000 of the new enrollments were democratic, while 865 were Republican. These new enrollments push the number of enrolled democrats above the number of enrolled republicans for the first time.

However, in Democratic Senator Jen Metzger’s District, which includes Sullivan County and parts of Orange county, the number of new democratic and republican enrollments were essentially the same.

Looking at the number of new democrats and republicans only gives a partial picture – even though there were far more democrats registered in Serino’s district before the 2018 midterms, she was able to defeat her opponent, Democrat Karen Smythe.

A large portion of voters are “registered independents” – they are registered to vote, but not in any political party. In New York, registered independents more often vote for Republican than Democratic.

A larger proportion of the new enrollments were independents than when compared to new enrollments during the run-up to the 2016 election. In the 39th District, represented by Democrat James Skoufis, there were more new independent enrollments than republican ones, though there are still more total republican enrollments in the district.

However, many registered independents will still vote for Democrats, and the make-up of the independent electorate could be significantly different than in years past. Also, the numbers are simply a baseline for the real figures: how many registered voters from each party show up at the polls. Below is a chart with figures culled from the new enrollment numbers with comparisons to past years for your perusal.

 

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